Monday, May 22, 2017

(Chinese) blood in the streets?

The worries about China ebbs and flows. The latest BAML Fund Manager Survey shows that China fears are at flood levels again.

Indeed, developments such as the inverted Chinese yield curve is creating a sense of peak anxiety.

I recently highlighted analysis indicating that China fears are overblown (see Are the Fed and PBoC taking away the punch bowl?). Bloomberg Asian economist Tom Orlik observed that, despite the crackdown on credit, there are no signs of an imminent downturn: "Credit is down but land sales and profits are up - businesses and local governments still have funds to work with."

Investors should relax! The slowdown was policy induced, and policy can (and will) be reversed should the economy shudder, especially ahead of the 19th Party Congress later this year.

China has suffered enough pain. It looks like its near-term outlook is turning up again.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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