Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Will the real Q1 GDP please stand up?

The US Q1 GDP report is scheduled to be released Friday morning. Current expectations call for a Q/Q growth rate of 1.1%, but there are wide disparities in nowcasts. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast of Q1 GDP growth has been declining since late February and stands at a meager 0.5%.

By contrast, the New York Fed's nowcast has been relatively steady, with an estimate of 2.7%.

What's going on? Who is right? The evolution of GDP growth in 2017 will have a large impact on Fed policy.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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