Monday, January 9, 2017

Good news, bad news from December Jobs Report

I had been meaning to write about the December Jobs Report, which was released last Friday, but I hadn't gotten around to it. The report had elements of both good news and bad news.

The good news is the December report showed a solid market. True, the headline Non-Farm Payroll figure missed market expectations, but November was revised upwards, and the positive revision in November was bigger than the December miss.

In conjunction with the December Jobs Report, the Council of Economic Advisers released a report indicating that the American economy had added more jobs than other advanced economies in the last eight years (via Business Insider).

Notwithstanding the political victory lap nature of the CEA`s report, the December Jobs Report should keep the Fed on track with its expectations of three rate hikes in 2017.

Here is the bad news. There are worrisome signs that the economy is starting to overheat. The combination of Fed actions on interest rates and wage pressures on operating margins are likely to be unfriendly to the stock market. Unless the Trump administration comes through on their promised tax cuts in the near future, upside for equity prices will be limited in 2017.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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